The The Iran of the Next Two Decades, A Scenario Planning Approach Over the Iranian Gas and Oil Industries by 2035

  • Nima Norouzi Energy Department, Amirkabir university of technology, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Oil and gas, Governance, Scenario planning, Energy policy


Iran holding 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil with a share of 9.3 percent and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas with 18 percent share of oil and gas reservoirs are among the world's most important oil and gas producing countries. Hydrocarbon reservoirs are one of the most important competitive advantages of Iran, along with a specific geographic location. In the social and economic structure of Iran, the oil has a special place. In a context where dynamic and permanent variables are changing and uncertainty is high, the use of scenarios for long-term horizons is beneficial and useful for strategic planning and policymaking. In this study, the future of Iranian oil and gas industries is being studied in four scenarios using the hybrid foresight methodology and the Iranian seventh progress plan strategies to enhance their accuracy. the noted scenarios are the most probable future pathway for the Iranian oil and gas industry.


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