The The Iran of the Next Two Decades, A Scenario Planning Approach Over the Iranian Gas and Oil Industries by 2035

  • Nima Norouzi Energy Department, Amirkabir university of technology, Tehran, Iran
Keywords: Oil and gas, Governance, Scenario planning, Energy policy

Abstract

Iran holding 153.8 billion barrels of crude oil with a share of 9.3 percent and 33.5 billion cubic meters of gas with 18 percent share of oil and gas reservoirs are among the world's most important oil and gas producing countries. Hydrocarbon reservoirs are one of the most important competitive advantages of Iran, along with a specific geographic location. In the social and economic structure of Iran, the oil has a special place. In a context where dynamic and permanent variables are changing and uncertainty is high, the use of scenarios for long-term horizons is beneficial and useful for strategic planning and policymaking. In this study, the future of Iranian oil and gas industries is being studied in four scenarios using the hybrid foresight methodology and the Iranian seventh progress plan strategies to enhance their accuracy. the noted scenarios are the most probable future pathway for the Iranian oil and gas industry.

References

1. Norouzi N., Fani M., Karami Ziarani Z., 2019, The Fall of oil age: A scenario planning approach over the last peak oil of human history by 2040, petroleum science and engineering, 10.1016/j.petrol.2019.106827
2. Abbaszadeh P., Maleki A., Alipour M., Maman, Kanani Y.M., 2013. Iran's oil development scenarios by 2025. Energy Policy 56, 612-622.
3. Ariga, J. (2002), “Internalizing Environmental Quality in a Simple Endogenous Growth Model”, Working Paper, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Maryland Collge Park, MD 20742.
4. Bahrami M., Abbaszadeh P., 2013. An overview of renewable energies in Iran. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 24, August 2013, Pages 198-208.
5. BP (British Petroleum), 2015. Energy Outlook 2035. Available at: < http: //www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/energy-outlook-2015/Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet.pdf. <
6. Cornish, E., "Futuring; The Exploration of the Future', World Future Society: 2004, p.528.
7. Dasgupta, M. and S. K. Mishra (2007), “Least Absolute Deviation Estimation of Linear Econometric Models: A Literature Review”, Working Paper, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1781/.
8. Di Maria, C. and S. Valente (2008), “Hicks Meets Hotelling: The Direction of Technical Change in Capital–resource Economies”, Environment and Development Economics, No. 13, pp. 691-717.
9. ECA (European Consortium for accreditation), 2014. Available At :< http://ecahe.eu/>.
10. Energy Revolution, 2012, the history of biogas Available on: http://www.energyrevolution.co.za/biogas/biogas-history.html.
11. EIA (Energy Information Adminstration), 2011a. Available at :< http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/country.cfm?iso=IRN>.
12. EIA (Energy Information Adminstration), 2011b. Available at :< http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=TUR>.
13. Iranian central bank time series, available online in https://www.cbi.ir/page/4275.aspx
14. Petroleum Industry, available online in www.mop.ir
15. Fang-Mei T, Ai-Chia Ch. Yi-Nung P (2009). "Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market". Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 76 pp 897-909.
16. Groth, C. and P. Schou (2002), “Can Non-renewable Resources Alleviate the Knife-edge Character of Endogenous Growth?” Oxford Economic Papers, No. 54, pp. 386-411.
17. Godet, M., "Creating Futures; Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool", ECONOMICA, Second Edition, 2006.
18. German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), WBGU Berlin 2011, Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie, detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at .
19. Hamrin, J. (2007). "Review of Renewable Energy in Global Scenarios." For The International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement on Renewable Energy Technology Deployment, Center for Resource Solutions San Francisco, CA June 2007.
20. Institute for Futures Research (IFR). Business Futures 1992. Edited by P. H. Spies. Bellville, South Africa: University of Stellenbosch, 1992, Extracted on: .
21. IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2016”, OECD/IEA 9 rue de la federation, 75739 Paris cedex 15, France.
22. IEA, “Energy Technology Perspectives 2015”, OECD/IEA 9 rue de la federation, 75739 Paris cedex 15, France. Available at http://www.enea.it/it/per-la-stampa/events/iaday_27feb15/3_Poponi.pdf.
23. J.M. Allwood, S.E. Laursen, et al (2008). "An approach to scenario analysis of the sustainability of an industrial sector applied to clothing and textiles in the UK". Journal of The greener Production, 16, pp 1234-1246.
24. IPCC, 2015, Intergovermental Pannel on Climate Change Fourth Assesment Report Summery for Policy Makers. Available at .
25. International Recommendations for Energy Statistics (IRES), 2011. Draft version United Nations New York, Available at :< https://unstats.un.org/Unsd/energy/ires/default.htm>.
26. Myers, Isabel Briggs (1998). Introduction to Type: A Guide to Understanding your Results on the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. Mountain View, CA: CPP, Inc.
27. Myers, Isabel Briggs; Mary H. McCaulley (1985). Manual: A Guide to the Development and Use of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (2nd Ed.). Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologist Press. p. 52. ISBN 0-89106-027-8.
28. Miller, K.D., Waller G.H., “Scenarios, real options and integrated risk management”, Long Range Planning 36, 2003; p.93–107.
29. Millennium project, 2016. Available at :< http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/scenarios/explor-s.html>.
30. Ming-Chih T, Chien-Chih S (2004). "Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan, Accident Analysis and Prevention".Accident Analysis and Prevention, 36, pp683–690.
31. M. Mohammadnejad, M. Ghazvini, T.M.I. Mahlia, A. Andriyana (2011). "A review on energy scenario and sustainable energy in Iran". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 15, Issue 9, December 2011, Pages 4652-4658.
32. Mohtadi, H. (1996), “Environment, Growth and Optimal Policy Design”, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 63, No. 1, pp. 119-140.
33. M. Makkonenetal et al, (2012), "Competition in the European electricity markets – outcomes of a Delphi study" Energy Policy 44 (2012)431–440.
34. Pillkahn, U., “Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development”, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2008, p. 171.
35. R. Alizadeh et al, (2016), "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry" Technological Forecasting & Social Change 104 (2016) 162–171.
36. SRI (Standford Research Institute), 2016. Available At :< https://www.sri.com/>.
37. Shell, Shell energy scenarios to 2050, 4th edition, 2008, VMS The Hague H8259. Available at: .
38. Shell, 2015, Shell energy scenarios to 2050, 4th edition, 2008, VMS The Hague H8259. Available at .
39. Smulders, S. and R. Gradus (1996), “Pollution Abatement and Long-term Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 505-532.
40. Von Reibnitz, Ute. Scenario Techniques. Germany: McGraw-Hill, 1988, pp. 102-110.
41. Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, 2006. "Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis" Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 73, Issue 4, May 2006, Pages 334-361.
42. World Energy Council (WEC), 2013, Available at .
43. Zirus (the Stuttgart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies), 2017. Available at: .
44. Murray James W, Hansen Jim. Peak oil and energy independence: myth andreality. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 2013; 94(28):245-6.
45. Lukoil, 2013, Annual Report, Lukoil company, available online: http://www.lukoil.com/InvestorAndShareholderCenter/ReportsAndPresentations/AnnualReports/ArchiveAnnualReports1999-2009?wid=wid4Tgn652RYke-bUzKSTJocw
46. Hook Mikael, Aleklett Kjell. A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production. Energy Policy November 2008; 36(11):4262-71.
47. Hubbert Marion King. Nuclear energy and the fossil fuels. Drill Prod Pract 1956; 36(June).
48. Brandt Adam R. Testing Hubbert. Energy Policy May 2007; 35(5):3074-88.
49. Brecha Robert J. Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil. Energy Policy December 2012; 51:586-97.
50. Laherrere Jean. Forecasting future production from past discovery. Int J Glob Energy Iss 2002; 18(2):218-38.
51. Lynch Michael C. Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice. Q Rev Econ Finan, 2002; 42(January):373-89.
52. Greiner Alfred, Semmler Willi, Mette Tobias. An economic model of oil exploration and extraction. Comput Econ June 2011; 40(4):387e99.
53. Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. Factpages. 2014.
54. GOV.UK. Oil and gas: field data. 2014.
55. Laherrere Jean, Sornette Didier. Stretched exponential distributions in nature and economy: “Fat Tails” with characteristic scales. Phys J B-Condensed Matter Comp Syst 1998; 2(4):525-39.
56. Malevergne Yannick, Pisarenko Vladilen F, Sornette Didier. Empirical distributions of log-returns: between the stretched exponential and the power law? Quant Finan 2005; 5(4):379-401.
57. Forro Zalan, Cauwels Peter, Sornette Didier. When games meet reality: is Zynga overvalued? J Invest Strategies 2012; 1(3):119-45.
58. Sornette Didier. Critical phenomena in natural sciences, chaos, fractals, self-organization and disorder: concepts and tools. Heidelberg. 2 edition 2004.
59. Smith James L. A probabilistic model of oil discovery. Rev Econ Stat 1980; 62(4):587-94.
60. European Commission. EU crude oil imports. 2014.
61. L.Fiévet ,Z.Forró, P.Cauwels, D.Sornette; “A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production:
62. Application to the UK and Norway”, Energy xxx (2014) 1-10
63. Qiang Wang, Shuyu Li, Rongrong Li; “China's dependency on foreign oil will exceed 80% by 2030: Developing a novel NMGM-ARIMA to forecast China's foreign oil dependence from two dimensions”, Energy 163 (2018) 151-67
64. Istoni Luz-Sant’Ana, Patricia Román-Román, Francisco Torres-Ruiz; “Modeling oil production and its peak by means of a stochastic diffusion process based on the Hubbert curve”, Energy 133 (2017) 455-70
65. Hana Moon,Daiki Min, “Assessing energy efficiency and the related policy implications for energy-intensive firms in Korea: DEA approach”, Energy 133 (2017) 23-34
66. Eya Jebali, Hédi Essid, Naceur Khraief, “The analysis of energy efficiency of the Mediterranean countries: A two-stage double bootstrap DEA approach”, Energy 134 (2017) 991-1000
67. Stephen Horvath,Mahdi Fasihi, Christian Breyer; “Techno-economic analysis of a decarbonized shipping sector: Technology suggestions for a fleet in 2030 and 2040”, Energy Conversion and Management xxx (2018) 230-240
68. Giovanni Nicoletti ,Natale Arcuri, Gerardo Nicoletti ,Roberto Bruno; “A technical and environmental comparison between hydrogen and some fossil fuels”, Energy Conversion and Management 89 (2015) 205-213
69. Sujeetha Selvakkumaran, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Toshihiko Masui, Tatsuy Hanaoka, Yuzuru Matsuoka; “Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector”, Energy Conversion and Management 85 (2014) 663-674
70. Amiri, M. J., and S. S. Eslamian. "Investigation of climate change in Iran." Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 3.4 (2010): 208-216.
71. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza, Mohammad Ali Falahi, and Malihe Ashena. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran." Energy 35.12 (2010): 5115-5120.
72. Kharecha, Pushker A., and James E. Hansen. "Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate." Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22.3 (2008).
73. Mirzaei, Maryam, and Mahmoud Bekri. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025." Environmental research 154 (2017): 345-351.
74. Ghorbani, Narges, Arman Aghahosseini, and Christian Breyer. "Assessment of a cost-optimal power system fully based on renewable energy for Iran by 2050-Achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions and overcoming the water crisis." Renewable Energy 146 (2020): 125-148.
75. Alizadeh, R., et al. "Iranian energy and climate policies adaptation to the Kyoto protocol." International Journal of Environmental Research 9.3 (2015): 853-864.
76. Alizadeh, Reza, et al. "The green development mechanism in Iran: does it need a revival?" International journal of global warming 10.1-3 (2016): 196-215.
77. Farajzadeh, Zakariya. "Emissions tax in Iran: Incorporating pollution disutility in a welfare analysis." Journal of The greener Production 186 (2018): 618-631.
78. Mark Carragher; Mattia De Rosa; Anjukan Kathirgamanathan; Donal P.Finn. ," Investment analysis of gas-turbine combined heat and power systems for commercial buildings under different climatic and market scenarios" Energy Conversion and Management 183 (2019): 35-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2018.12.086
79. Boqiang Lin; Xuan Xie. ," Energy conservation potential in China’s petroleum refining industry: Evidence and policy implications" Energy Conversion and Management 91(2015): 377-386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2014.11.058
80. Usman Safder; Pouya Ifaei; Chang Kyoo Yoo," Multi-scale smart management of integrated energy systems, Part 2: Weighted multi-objective optimization, multi-criteria decision making, and multi-scale management (3M) methodology" Energy Conversion and Management 198 (2019): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2019.111830
Published
2019-12-01
How to Cite
Norouzi, N. (2019). The The Iran of the Next Two Decades, A Scenario Planning Approach Over the Iranian Gas and Oil Industries by 2035. Majlesi Journal of Energy Management, 8(4), 27-40. Retrieved from http://journals.iaumajlesi.ac.ir/em/index/index.php/em/article/view/396
Section
Articles